HDFC Bank, Lakshmi Vilas Bank and Central Bank set off a round of deposit rate hikes to attract funds to meet accelerating investment and consumption, but lending rates may stay where they are, at least for now, as banks' high profitability provides a cushion.
Rates are being raised between 25 basis points and 75 basis points across maturities. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
The increases come a day after the Reserve Bank of India raised key policy rates and sent signals that it is on course to keep it going until it manages to temper the demand pull price increase, which forced it to raise inflation forecast for the year to 6% from 5.5%.
"Considering that liquidity in the system has moved into a negative terrain and that there is a strong potential for loan growth, we think it is the appropriate time to raise deposit rates," said Paresh Sukthankar, executive director at HDFC Bank. "The transmission to base rate will take a few weeks."
Base rate is the minimum at which a bank can lend. The second-largest private bank said it will pay 25 basis points more for two-year deposits at 7.5%, and 7% for one year. These are effective July 30. The sharpest increase of 75 basis points, to 5.25%, is for six months, where temporary factors may keep the market tight.
Lenders are raising deposit rates as loan growth is higher than deposit rates, absorbing the excess funds that banks had. To keep the business going smooth, they need to constantly attract funds, which are finding their way into higher-yielding investments such as real estate and stocks. But lending rates are not rising since banks benefited from cheap funds after the credit crisis, instead of passing it on to customers.
Borrowing costs for home owners and aspiring car buyers may not rise as fast since banks can refrain from doing for fear of reduced demand. Their profitability would not be crimped substantially, since they did not pass on all the cheap funds they got from RBI after Lehman Brothers collapsed.
The central bank cut the repo rate, the rate at which it lends to banks, by 425 basis points, to 4.75% from 9%, between October 2008 and February this year. The banks' response was not proportionate, especially in lending.
During the period, banks cut 1-3 year deposit rates by 400 basis points to a low of 6%. But the benchmark lending rates hardly moved by 100 basis points between 14.25% and 13.25%. This action by banks boosted their profitability, leaving the customer poorer.
Net interest margins of banks got a boost. Axis Bank's is at 3.7%, Punjab National Bank's 3.9% and HDFC Bank's 4.2%.
These high margins leave scope for slower gains in lending rates even if the central bank keeps raising rates. "The base rate will go up only when the average cost of deposits goes up and thus there will be some lag effect for revising lending rates," said JM Garg, chairman and managing director at Corporation Bank.
This is not the first time that banks have raised deposit rates, leaving lending rates untouched. They increased deposit rates by 75-100 basis points between March and July this year while benchmark lending rates remained static for a year now.
But the scene of excess liquidity may be changing fast, although no squeeze is foreseen. Although the situation of banks parking funds with the central bank has changed to them borrowing from RBI, it may not accelerate. On Tuesday, the surplus liquidity was Rs 2,225 crore, the difference between the money parked by banks with RBI.
Governor D Subbarao said it was the intent of the central bank to keep liquidity in a deficit mode, which will ensure that the repo rate would be the effective rate, triggering fears of a rise in the cash reserve requirement.
Non-food credit accelerated to 22.3% as on July 2, from 17.1% in March, above the target of 20% for the year, partly due to high borrowings by telecom companies to pay for spectrum.
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